GB-London: Policeometer - Understanding the trends in Policing and Crime KPIs (MOPAC 1084)

To develop the Policeometer project, we require a research and data analytics partner to provide the following key services:

Data Collection and Integration

Obtain and consolidate high-quality data on relevant societal factors (e.g., unemployment rates, cost of living, population density, police workforce hours, stop and search). This data should be granular (e.g. weekly records if available) and span an appropriate period to ensure robust analysis.

Ensure data is accurate, reliable, and suitably formatted for statistical modelling, with preprocessing steps as needed to address any gaps, inconsistencies, or potential biases.

Analytical Model Development

Build econometric models (or equivalent analytical model) to estimate the relationships between societal factors and rates of crime across London. This includes developing a theoretical framework that identifies and structures the factors likely impacting crime rates.

Build econometric models (or equivalent analytical model) to estimate the relationships between societal factors and trust and confidence in the MPS. This includes developing a theoretical framework that identifies and structures the factors likely impacting these factors.

The analysis should test for statistical significance of each factor, with rigorous diagnostics to validate model results.

Scenario Planning and Forecasting Tool

Integrate the validated models into an interactive scenario planning dashboard, allowing users to adjust key variables and observe the predicted impact on rates crime and impacts on trust and confidence in the MPS.

The tool should provide clear, visual outputs that support policy simulations, helping stakeholders evaluate the potential effects of different societal conditions on crime trends across London.

Documentation and Training

There are a total of 33 Boroughs in London and a 12 crime types as well as 2 public perception metrics we'd like modelling. We are not expecting a fully developed tool with nearly 400 models, rather we'd like a sample of 2-3 crime models and 1 perception model to act as the template and the knowledge to build the remainder ourselves.

Provide detailed code and documentation of all analytical processes, assumptions, and limitations to ensure transparency and reproducibility.

Offer training and guidance on developing further models and deploying the into scenario planning tool.

SMART objective/ policy objective

The successful provider will be bound by the commitments made in their tender.