Development of Theory of Change for improving biodiversity in England

Government have agreed commitments to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 and beyond, supported by a variety of policy actions and incentives. As part of the Environment Bill, Government have agreed to at least one statutory long-term target for Biodiversity. This sits alongside the indicators included in the 25 Year Environment Plan related to 'Thriving Plants and Wildlife'. The setting of legally binding targets will provide a strong mechanism to deliver long-term environmental outcomes and the best way to deliver these targets is through a robust, evidence-led process that seeks independent expert advice and provides a role for stakeholders. Whilst targets are currently in the process of Ministerial sign off and public consultation there are gaps in the theory behind the delivery mechanisms that will result in achieving the ambitions. Previously commissioned work outlined a high-level Theory of Change for a strategy for nature recovery looking at the actions and outcomes in relation to habitats and species, but it was not possible to develop a comprehensive theory of change at that time. The requirement of the Provider is to further develop Defra's current Theory of Change (ToC), providing a comprehensive ToC for the legally binding biodiversity targets;

- 2030 species abundance target: to halt the decline in species abundance by 2030 (Outcome based) - Long-term species abundance target: to reverse the ongoing decline in species abundance by 2042 to at least the 2022 baseline (Outcome based) - Long-term species extinction risk target: no net increase in the extinction risk of species by 2042 compared to the 2022 baseline (Outcome based) - Wider habitats target: to create or restore 750,000 hectares of wildlife-rich habitat outside protected sites by 2042 from a 2022 baseline (Action based)