# Provision of Macroeconomic Data and Forecast Scenarios for IFRS 9 compliance at UK Export Finance

> A sourced UK public sector contract award published by Department for International Trade.

## Key facts

- Buyer: [Department for International Trade](/buyers/department-for-international-trade/contract-awards)
- Supplier: [Oxford Economics](/suppliers/oxford-economics/public-sector-contract-awards)
- Award value: £205,000
- Award date: 19 June 2023
- Published: 14 July 2023
- Contract start: 19 June 2023
- Contract end: 19 June 2026
- Stage: awarded
- Procurement category: services
- Notice ID: fae13dfa-06e0-4e04-95b2-79eb8adacc5e-662972
- OCID: ocds-b5fd17-bd2db28f-ca9d-4b64-a232-7522d7f02409

## Description

The requirement is for the incorporation of forward-looking information on an unbiased and probability-weighted basis in the calculation of Expected Credit Losses \(ECL\)\. The ECL is comprised of three elements: Exposure at Default \(EAD\), Loss Given Default \(LGD\) and Probability of Default \(PD\)\. The requirements of IFRS 9 are typically captured by forecasts of economic conditions - multiple macroeconomic scenarios with their own probability weights are needed in the calculation of the ECL\. To build, test and operationalise new IFRS 9 models, UKEF needs to procure 1\) macroeconomic time-series historic data and 2\) IFRS 9 compliant macroeconomic forecast scenarios with probability weights\.

## Related contract awards

- [Liquid Chromatography Mass Spectrometer \(LC-MS\) for OPSS](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-a5a93cac-9735-4724-a7ee-a4449870c55a) — Department for International Trade
- [Assistant Finance Business Partner](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-7ad8483d-94d6-4d27-821d-8f35ac6acf96) — Department for International Trade
- [Legal Advice on a Repayable Launch Investment \(RLI\) Contract](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-d512acec-f360-4f10-99bf-8e53e47af1d0) — Department for International Trade
- [Provision of Market and Product Data for Metals and Commodities](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-e5391ad0-7d32-45e5-8f7e-c374dc129907) — Department for International Trade
- [Oxford Economics Ltd](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-e60cce29-a1e3-4339-9c66-e2ed4285f6a5) — Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government
- [Economic Forecasts](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-59aab53d-aff0-4b3c-a587-a9d812f68e76) — Liverpool City Region Combined Authority
- [GB-London: RBGKEW1190 Economic Valuation of Kew 2023](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-d29fd6dd-bb0e-44e3-88ba-61eaf15387ea) — Royal Botanic Gardens
- [Green Economy Research](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-cb5d42af-ca6c-48dc-8ced-d55134bd2a3d) — London Borough of Hackney
- [Translation & Interpreting Service](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-54075a52-9d7d-4c1f-b548-9dc63dcc95cb) — London Borough of Waltham Forest
- [QBE082 09:00 2026-08-21 Haverhill to Sir Peter Hall School, Bury St Edmunds - 4-seater vehicle required - AWARD](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-3fe11212-9db7-4019-8387-e0a616618a82) — Suffolk County Council Passenger Transport
- [QOC931 09:00 2026-08-21 Onehouse & Newmarket to InToto Education, Fordham, Ely, Cambs - 4-seater vehicle & Passenger Assistant required - AWARD](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-88df1231-5adf-4f73-b42b-71e8931d53ab) — Suffolk County Council Passenger Transport
- [SEN20061-SEN-W/C TAXI-DOROTHY GOODMAN UPPER BARWELL LANE](/contracts/ocds-b5fd17-759dbe2b-b549-4a79-9512-eb9eafef5895) — Leicestershire County Council

## Source

[View the original notice on Contracts Finder](https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/fae13dfa-06e0-4e04-95b2-79eb8adacc5e-662972)